Avs, Blues collide in St. Louis

Hockey Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche will try to boost their playoff chances against a tough opponent, as they visit the St. Louis Blues for tonight's clash at Scottrade Center.

The Avalanche enter today tied with Dallas for the ninth seed in the West and the clubs are just one point behind Phoenix for the conference's eighth and final postseason berth. Minnesota and Calgary are also just one point behind the Avs and Stars in the crowded Western Conference playoff picture.

Colorado had lost five straight (0-4-1) before closing a four-game homestand with consecutive wins over Chicago and Carolina. Friday's win over the Hurricanes was a dramatic one, as Ryan O'Reilly scored the game-winner with 1.2 seconds left in overtime to give the Avalanche a 4-3 win at the Pepsi Center.

With time winding down, O'Reilly picked the pocket of Justin Faulk in the neutral zone and skated the other way. From the left wing, O'Reilly cranked a shot that beat Cam Ward to the left side for the win.

"I looked up and saw four seconds on the clock," said O'Reilly. "I managed to get the shot off on time and got lucky with it."

Paul Stastny had a goal and an assist for the Avalanche, while Jean-Sebastien Giguere stopped 39 shots in the win.

Colorado will now play four straight and six of its next seven games on the road, where it is 12-12-2 this season.

The Blues, meanwhile, have won three of their last four games and enter tonight five points behind Detroit for the top spot in the Central Division and Western Conference. St. Louis is also just two points ahead of Nashville for the West's fourth seed and second place in the Central.

St. Louis won its second straight game Thursday in New Jersey, as T.J. Oshie scored the only goal in the shootout to give the Blues a 4-3 victory over the Devils at Prudential Center.

The Blues found themselves down by a 3-2 score midway through the second period, when Brian Elliot relieved an ineffective Jaroslav Halak in net. Elliott stopped all 15 shots he faced in regulation and overtime before denying three Devils skaters in the shootout.

Patrik Berglund scored with 5:50 remaining in regulation to send the game to overtime, while Chris Stewart and David Perron also scored for St. Louis, which ended its three-game road trip with two straight victories.

"Whenever you're down one goal going into the third on the road it's a good position to be in, so we were pretty comfortable," said Elliot.

Elliott, who played in 12 games with Colorado last year after getting traded from Ottawa, is expected to get the start tonight. He is 1-1-1 in three career tests against the Avalanche.

St. Louis has a 22-3-4 record at home this year compared to a 10-11-3 mark on the road. Beginning with tonight's test, the Blues will play four of their next five games at Scottrade Center.

Jason Arnott is not expected to play tonight for the Blues after sitting out the last three games with a bruised left shoulder. Arnott was placed on injured reserve Friday and will also sit out Sunday's game against San Jose. Matt D'Agostini will also miss a second game since sustaining a blow to the head on Tuesday against Ottawa.

The Blues are expected to get forward Andy McDonald back Sunday when they faced the Sharks. McDonald, who had 50 points in 58 games for the Blues last year, has been out since suffering a concussion on Oct. 13 in Dallas.

Tonight's tilt marks the fourth and final scheduled meeting between the Blues and Avs this season. Colorado has taken two of three encounters so far, but the Blues posted a 4-0 triumph on home ice when the clubs last met on Jan. 7. The Avs have still won nine of 11 overall in this series, but St. Louis has claimed the last two matchups in the Gateway City.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.